Decumulation: where does the effective drawdown end up?
A South African living annuity that starts at a chosen drawdown percentage and lifts the
rand income every 1 January by inflation. Each path shows the effective drawdown — income
payable divided by the fund left to pay it — held inside the legislated 2.5%–17.5% band.
1 The path
Selected path — solid on real data
Dashed once projected
Income capped at 17.5%
Other start years, same drawdown
2 Pick a start year and a starting drawdown
Never capped:lower drawdown → deeper
Capped on real data:sooner → deeper
Capped only in the projection:
Every combination of start year and starting drawdown (2.5% to 17.5% in 0.5% steps) — 961 paths. Hover any cell to draw it above; click to pin it. Three outcomes are distinguished: the income was never cut back; the 17.5% ceiling bound on real market data; or it bound only once the projected decade was added, which rests on the assumed return rather than on anything observed. Start years from 2017 have more than half their path projected.
3 What happened to the selected path
Written from this model's own figures: every number above is read off the selected path, and a market episode is named only where that path actually ran through it.